Ukrainian macro summary in May-June 2022

03.08.2022 - 03:07 #Ukraine, #economic, #Maksim Urakin

Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will decrease by 30%, however, the unblocking of seaports would reduce the economic decline to 22-25%, Olena Bilan, chief economist at Dragon Capital, believes. The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022 fell by 15.1% compared to the first quarter of 2021 after growing by 6.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, the State Statistics Service published such a preliminary estimate.

The economy of Ukraine is gradually recovering from the level of the greatest fall in March thanks to the regions where there are no active hostilities, as a result, the decline in May this year (against the same month last year) slowed down to 35-40%, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine Serhiy Nikolaychuk said.

The National Bank expects Ukraine’s GDP to fall by at least a third in 2022, Deputy Governor of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk said during the presentation of the report on financial stability.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates Ukraine’s losses from destroyed housing, business and infrastructure due to Russian aggression at 50% of GDP in 2021, or $100 billion, according to a financial stability report published on the central bank’s website on Tuesday.

The real GDP of Ukraine will decrease by more than a third in 2022, inflation accelerated to 20% in the first half of the year, according to bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine.

The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-April 2022 fell by almost 97.6% compared to the same period in 2021, to $29.6 million from $1.237 billion.

Consumer price growth in Ukraine in May 2022 slowed down to 2.7% from 3.1% in April and 4.5% in March, but exceeded 1.6% in February and 1.3% in January, the State Statistics Service said on Thursday.

The state budget deficit in January-May 2022 exceeded annual deficits of the previous two years, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said in its June macroeconomic and monetary review.

Ukraine’s total state debt in April grew by 0.84% in U.S. dollars to $97.62 billion, in hryvnias – by 0.84% to UAH 2.855 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.

Economic Monitoring’s Project Manager – PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin

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