Opinion: Destabilizing Transnistria as a prologue to destabilizing Europe
On April 25-26, several terrorist attacks were reported in the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic.
It seems to me that developments in Transnistria go along a typical “Donetsk” playbook. Back in 2014 in Donbas, an external threat was also designed, and an evacuation was announced, which was followed by a military mobilization of the population, resulting in a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
It is not a secret that the military potential and capabilities of Transnistria and “LPR/DPR” are not comparable, but Russia is trying to create an additional hotbed of threat for Ukraine, and as a possible option – an irritant to provoke a possible response on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In my opinion, it was some hidden message to President Sandu who is thus being warned about the inexpediency of fuel supplies for Ukraine through the territory of Moldova. Otherwise, it is assumed, that she will bring a war to her home territory.
In the event of destabilization of Moldova, Maia Sandu won’t be able to resist Russia in any way, in particular, to defend the country against long-distance shelling with high-precision missiles, thus being forced to either capitulate or turn to third countries for assistance.
In the event of Ukraine's intervention, Russia will be able to at least expand the deployment of its troops due to the need for the Ukrainian Army to pull part of its forces to respond to the Transnistria issue. At most, Russia could officially declare war on Ukraine.
In case Romania intervenes, a precedent will occur at a higher level – that of NATO. Romania alone will not oppose Russia, so NATO will be forced to consider whether it is worth going to war with the Russian Federation for the sake of rescuing Moldova.
Analyzing all the above-mentioned scenarios I can suppose a few things: the Russian Federation is raising the level of challenges, trying to create additional hotbeds of a possible war closer to the borders of NATO and the EU. The next epicenter could be the Balkans. Serbia is already being looked into. Most importantly, the Kremlin proved that a fairly simple method, once tested by Hitler, of “aggressor playing victim” is applicable in our time. At a macro level, Russia is trying to destabilize Europe and the collective West as such. At a micro level, Russia creates additional threats to Ukraine, setting up prerequisites for an even more massive invasion of the southern part of the country, pushing a land corridor toward Transnistria, with a potential occupation of Moldova in case the Western response is weak.