Ukraine in Arabic | Europe to hold a gas stress test in Ukraine
KYIV/Ukraine in Arabic/ The European Commission has included Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine in the European Gas Stress Test to see how Europe would cope in the worst-case scenario of restricted gas supplies, Vice President of the European Commission for Energy Gunther Oettinger said at a press conference in Brussels on Thursday.
With the winter approaching and the Ukraine crisis still smoldering, the Commission said it wanted to have a clear picture of where the biggest shortfalls would arise and how they could be mitigated.
The 'stress test' exercise consisted in a simulation of two main hypothetical disruption scenarios during autumn/winter (for periods of one month and six months in each case):
- a complete halt of Russian gas imports into the EU and the members of the Energy Community (Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans countries). This would also include a complete halt of supplies through the Nord Stream pipeline which brings Russian gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea;
- a disruption of the Ukraine transit route.
A disruption of gas supplies through Ukraine remains a realistic possibility, as long as Moscow and Kyiv remain unable to reach an agreement on the price of gas Gazprom sells to Ukraine. But a complete halt of Russian supplies to the Union looks like a nightmare scenario, which would likely last six months.
Moscow cut off gas shipments to Kiev in June amid violence between pro-Kremlin rebels and Ukrainian government forces, and has threatened to block the EU too if countries deliver gas to Ukraine. “A deal is achievable, thanks to the preparatory work and the will of each party,” Oettinger said of next week's talks.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin made the latest in a series of similar threats when he warned, several hours after Oettinger's remarks, of major transit risks to European gas supplies this winter. The proposal on the table would see cash-strapped Kiev settle 3.1 billion dollars (2.4 billion euros) of unpaid bills with Russian state gas giant Gazprom, with two billion dollars paid before the end of October, in exchange for a resumption of supplies.
Oettinger said the stress tests, which were based on the scenario of a six-month halt in supplies from Russia, showed supplies for EU nations could be guaranteed, with the bloc's reserve capacity currently 90 percent full. He said that eastern European nations, which are especially dependent on Russian gas, could lose up to 60 percent of their supplies.
“This means that households might have to do without heating,” the European Commission said.
The EU is to be ready to see no effect from the negotiations and the EU should know its possiblitiies of providing EU members with gas in winter, taking into account supplies from other sources, for example, Algeria and Norway.