Putin can't live with thought of Ukraine independent, Andrei Illarionov says

Tue, 10.03.2015 16:46

Kiev/ Ukraine in Arabic/ According to him, in both societies, there are many myths in relation to each other. Nearly one year war led to the emergence of a new tragic phenomenon of conflict between societies. Based on the same myths imposed by propaganda. Illarionov took part, was held in Kiev, the round table "Dialogue during the conflict, where our correspondent asked Andrei Nikolaevich a few questions, the answers to which, we hope, will help to dispel some of these myths.

- Andrey, in your opinion, as an economist, what costs the Russians Kremlin's policy towards Ukraine?

"I want you right to say that the sanctions that were imposed against the individual citizens of Russia and private companies, in my opinion, are extremely limited, extremely inefficient. They have only modest impact even on the economic performance of these companies, not to mention on the macroeconomic situation and zero impact on the policy of the Kremlin power.

Last year Russian gold and currency reserves decreased by 123 billion dollars. The reduction of these reserves is not the result of any reduction in oil prices or the imposition of sanctions against Russia

The question arises, what was the reason for such a reduction? The answer is simple, and economic analysis that shows very clearly is war. Military actions that Vladimir Putin has unleashed against Ukraine, the cost of Russian society and the state 123 billion dollars. Real fee, which Russian society is paying for this war is not something that goes through the budget, and the reaction of society, investors, holders of the national currency, which is expressed in the flight from the ruble, in flight from the Russian economy, in flight from Russia. This is the price that Russia has already paid for the war in 2014, and this price will rise in 2015.

- Ukraine war too costly?

 When compared, to whom war is more expensive, you need to compare absolute numbers.

The decline in foreign reserves of Ukraine can also be seen as a kind of fee for the conduct of the war. At the beginning of the year was $ 20 billion at the end of the year was 7.5. Means 12.5 billion dollars, plus about 9 billion dollars, the proceeds of loans.

These 20 billion should be compared with the Russian 123 billion that Russia paid for the war. It will be more or less understandable in the same language of the ongoing conversation and an analysis of how much this war is costing the one and the other country.

- February 12, ended the second negotiations "channel four" in Minsk, but the shooting did not stop, not only informagenstva constantly reported concentrations militants on Mariupol heavy machinery direction. In your opinion, the armistice agreement reached in Minsk, will be respected?

- I think not. There will be a small tactical pause to digest the results develasco occurrence after which it will be most likely to relocate to areas such as Donetsk, Happiness and Mariupol. It is quite obvious directions in which probably should wait. Every defeat from the Ukrainian side and the victory of Russia stimulates the appetite and increases ambitions. In particular, capture the entire territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as well as going beyond their territory. You may remember the famous movie, where the so-called army of the South-East is fighting for the capture of Kharkov, Poltava, Chernigov, Kiev and so on. This presentation of one of the most popular options, which was developed by the General staff of the Russian armed forces, at least from 2003-2004.

Project "new Russia", in which lay the myth of national separatism Russian-speaking Ukrainians, at this stage, clearly not taken place. What do You think, will there be a continuation?

- The fact that this project is still not finished. It did not take place in the short term, that is, as it was intended, on the Crimean option: quick, painless, without serious resistance and serious casualties. This option from the point of view of methodology implementation failed. It turned out that this is not possible, although Putin sincerely in April believed that it would happen. But convinced of the inability to carry out this process in the soft version, it retains the very purpose of reaching and providing control over the eight - eleven regions of Ukraine, including not only the field in quotes Novorossia, but Sumy, Chernihiv and Kyiv region together with Kiev. With the establishment there of the Ukrainian Federation or something else. This goal has not wavered. She is saved, and the military, but now changing the tools that you plan to use with it.

- What do you think is more interested in Putin industry, territory, or the population?

 His most interested in the liquidation of the Ukrainian statehood. In fact, in his mind, that's the main thing. Industry, "unsinkable aircraft carrier Crimea, the Russian-speaking population are all important things that are used in the internal struggle and external arguments, but most importantly, internal, underlying idea, which is for him an existential nature, the existence of a sovereign and independent state of Ukraine, which he was unable to accept. He and the Corporation's current and former security officials can't agree with the concept of existence of the Ukrainian state. They have the concept of a single people, consisting of three branches: the great Russians, the little Russians and Belarusians. For any modern man is a strange concept preached by some marginals, which has no relation to reality. The monks of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra wrote it in the 17th century. However, for them it is a guide to action. When Merkel and other politicians say that it is impossible in the 21st century to be guided by the concepts of the 19th century, they are mistaken. This concept of the 17th century.


Igor Yanvarev  talked


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